Laziness blocks my way; Business cannot be an excuse

Although this blog was started to achieve GMAT score at some certain level for my MBA degree, it has been almost a month any new post comes up.  I need to improve time management first, even before GMAT and English.

Reporting about my recent life; I am transferred to a new department where I become a sales person with some electronic devices and equipments.  The first mission, which allegedly starts on October, is going to proceed claims and complaints coming from customers due to technical failure, measurement defect, and damaged appearance.  Yet it is not an international position.  Mostly, I boost sales activity to domestic companies. Oh my god, hope I don't need to be a typical old sales person who needs to keep accompanied with customers as if I am like a slave of them.

Along with this transfer, I will move to Tokyo to live in.  Who is NOT happy to come to Tokyo? It's me!! I'm not interested in such a huge city where people are crowded, train is full, and traffic is heavy. But anyway, my life starts in one of the biggest city in this earth.

ALL I NEED IS TIME TO STUDY. OTHERWISE, I FAIL MY LIFE PLAN! BE STRONG!

It is no longer cost-effective for the Perks Company to continue offering its employees a generous package of benefits and incentives year after year.

Argument;

It is no longer cost-effective for the Perks Company to continue offering its employees a generous package of benefits and incentives year after year.  In periods when national unemployment rates are low, Perks may need to offer such a package in order to attract and keep good employees, but since national unemployment rates are now high, Perks does not need to offer the same benefits and incentives.  The money thus saved could be better used to replace the existing plant machinery with more technologically sophisticated equipment, or even to build an additional plant. 

Answer; 

The argument that Perks Company should stop generous benefit package for its employees and purchase technologically developed equipment omits some significant factors that must be addressed.  Those critical failures on assumptions crucially make this argument weakened.  There are three main points to be tackled with this problem. 

Primarily, the author's conclusion is based on the idea that a more sophisticated plant machine progresses Perks Company.  However, the argument does not mention about productivity of each plant of existing one and new one.  Whenever a new facility is installed, productivity and cost-effectiveness must be analyzed because it is possible that existing equipment, even if it is old, works enough to cover requirement that Perks Company needs.  New equipment even takes employees in Perks Company some time to get used to its operation; therefore productivity in entire of Perks Company gets decreased.  Why the existing plant needs to be replaced is not specified. 

Another issue ignored by the author is actual national unemployment rates.  Although the argument says that welfare package Perks Company offers to its employees should be adjusted, or even canceled when unemployment rates are low, along with fluctuation of national unemployment rates, at what rates can be benchmarks to determine when to adjust welfare package.  Foe example, if current unemployment rates are at 5.5% while it was just 5% a month ago, what decision does Perks Company make?  Is 0.5% difference big enough to see the situation as a good opportunity to hire highly skilled employees?  The author must explain what percentage of national unemployment rates is recognized high, or low. 

Finally, the assumption that Perks Company can employ employees with high skills at where national unemployment rates are high is not the case.  For example, those graduates from Harvard or Stanford are usually still employed in the recession, or even some of them run their own company instead of being an employee.  Besides, preference of treatment including salary and benefits are different among each employee.  Some workers may want to have incentive upon his sales record while others may ask for stable salary and adequate benefit package.  Since unemployment rates are high, it is not sure that Perks Company can hire highly educated employees who usually go to a bigger or more famous company. 

In conclusion, the argument in current form is not convincing.  More information is needed in order to better evaluate validity of the author's claim.  To begin with, need of replacement of the plant equipment is not specified enough to determine the new one is going to be better.  Also, benchmarks of unemployment rates must be defined to decide when is the good timing to try hiring highly profiled employees.  Finally, the author must takes tendency of highly skilled employees' preference to get hired such as salary or benefits.  Before any conclusion is made, every possible factor must be analyzed.

A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accident than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria.

Argument;

A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accident than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria.  In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service. 

Answer; 

The argument that West Cambria should apply commercial ambulance service as East Cambria does because of quicker response omits several important factors that must be addressed.  Those critical flaws make the argument less convincing.  There are three main points to be tackled with this problem. 

To begin with, the author's conclusion is based on a false assumption that West and East Cambria have similar, or same, geographic and traffic conditions.  Comparison of response time shows that East Cambria has faster action than West Cambria does.  It does not necessarily means West Cambria ambulance service works worse.  For example, if West Cambria is suffered from heavy traffic more frequently than East Cambria, ambulance cars also will be stuck on a street.  Or East Cambria might be a smaller region than West Cambria.  To contrast response time of each, comparison of geographic and traffic conditions must be explained. 

Another issue overlooked by the argument is difference of response time between West Cambria and East Cambria.  The author concludes that West Cambria should follow the way East Cambria does in ambulance service in order to provide faster service.  However, there is no specific data indicating how slow West Cambria moves.  Just difference of a minute or two sometimes is not necessarily criticized.  

Finally, an assumption in the argument that the number of those who call ambulance is going to be stable even if West Cambria starts commercial ambulance service. Generally speaking, medical service including ambulance is so expensive that some families cannot afford at all.  As a result, some patients in those families easily can be fatal or dead with illness or wound that could be treated well if ambulance is affordable.  Commercial ambulance keeps many families away from calling up even when really needed. 

In conclusion, the argument in current form is not well convincing. More information is needed in order to better evaluate the author's claim.  Primarily, geography and traffic of both cities must be analyzed.  Also, difference of response time is needed to show validity to begin commercial ambulance in West Cambria.  Finally, the author must assess whether ambulance service will be unaffordable even if volunteer ambulance service is transformed into commercial one.  Before any conclusion is made, all factors must be carefully evaluated.

Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60.

Argument;

Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60.  Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high.  The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age.  Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 yeas.  Given that the number older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period.  We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. 

Answer;

The statement that investments on Cola Loca will be flown into Early Bird Coffee because of elderly populated society coming up in the next 20 years omits several important assumptions that must be addressed.  Those critical flaws make the author's conclusion invalid. 

Primarily, the argument is based on false statistical analysis.  The author notes that as people get older, coffee consumption increases.  On the other hand, elder consumers less consume cola.  However, there is nothing defining what proportion of each of who drinks coffee and cola.  For example, it is possible that just 5% of people prefer coffee to cola at the age 20 and 10% of them drink coffee more frequently than cola at the age 60.  Without proportion of each preference, at what age or when cola excesses coffee cannot be specified.  As a result, investors would hesitate make investment on coffee. 

Another assumption ignored by the statement is that population can be varied by many reasons.  Every generation gets older with varied number of population of the same ages.  For example, someone might have one hundred people with the same age at the age 25 but, when 60, the population of same generation could be declined because some of them could have had a fatal illness, which elders are more likely to get, or others could have just moved out to another city.  The older people get, the more they would disappear.  Thus, the idea that consumption of cola will gets over that of coffee in near future as population get older is not convincing.  Even if elder population increase, cola still could keep the most consumption. 

Finally, the author does not take economic situation into account.   These days, coffee beans get more expensive than before.  Many coffee shops put their additional charges on their customers in order to cover higher costs.  However, getting price higher without developing anything can trigger decline of customers.  The fewer customers, the less revenue and profit Early Bird Coffee has.  Investment plunges when a company has smaller profit. 

In conclusion, the argument in current form is not convincing.  In order to better evaluate the author's claim, more information would be needed.  To begin with, more statistical data needs to be provided.  Also, the population of targeted market is crucial to assess break-even point, the significant figure for investors.  Finally, the author must consider that economy and price of commodities fluctuates because any major fluctuation on either of both affect consumption.  Before any conclusion is made, every possibility must be studied.

As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly order.

Argument;

As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly order.  For example. more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months.  Because of these two related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead. 

Answer; 

The argument that investment in hospitals and nursing facilities are more recommended than hotels due to risen rate of silver citizens omits some important assumptions must be addressed.  There are three points to be discussed. 

To begin with, the number of those who are elder than 65 year old are excess 20 percent of entire population is not enough to advise different investment other than hotels.  Who decides 20 percent shows the country is too old?  For example, if more than 50 percent is younger than 30 years old while more than 20 percent is elder than 65 years old, the country is classified as a young populated nation.  In addition, younger population is usually expected to boost economy as their salary goes up along with their career.  The author must explain about proportion of other generations. 

Another assumption ignored by the statement is forecast of the country.  Is the population over 65 years old still increasing?  What is life expectancy rate at birth?  Those data could help to assess the future situation of the country.  If population more than 65 years old starts going downward, hospitals and nursing houses are going to be less valuable and useful.  Instead, hotels and resort facilities are going to be popular among young families. 

Finally, why usage of the hotels is decreasing is not well specified.  Generally speaking, there are various causes damage reputation of a resort are; for instance, severe weather condition or economic depression.  Moreover, the country could promote its resort area toward the world so more people will be interested in visiting there if the promotion is successful.  Just elderly populated society is not enough to be a cause of less hotel occupation rate. 

In conclusion, the argument in current form is not convincing.  In order to better evaluate the author's claim, more information is needed.  Firstly, readers need to know the proportion of other generations in the country.  Also, forecast of the country must be discussed to assess investment in hotels.  Finally, other possible causes of less hotel occupation at resort area are not well considered.  Before any conclusion is made, the author must evaluate all aspects of the argument.