August 21, 2011

As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly order.


Argument;
As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly order.  For example. more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months.  Because of these two related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing homes instead. 


Answer; 
The argument that investment in hospitals and nursing facilities are more recommended than hotels due to risen rate of silver citizens omits some important assumptions must be addressed.  There are three points to be discussed. 

To begin with, the number of those who are elder than 65 year old are excess 20 percent of entire population is not enough to advise different investment other than hotels.  Who decides 20 percent shows the country is too old?  For example, if more than 50 percent is younger than 30 years old while more than 20 percent is elder than 65 years old, the country is classified as a young populated nation.  In addition, younger population is usually expected to boost economy as their salary goes up along with their career.  The author must explain about proportion of other generations. 

Another assumption ignored by the statement is forecast of the country.  Is the population over 65 years old still increasing?  What is life expectancy rate at birth?  Those data could help to assess the future situation of the country.  If population more than 65 years old starts going downward, hospitals and nursing houses are going to be less valuable and useful.  Instead, hotels and resort facilities are going to be popular among young families. 

Finally, why usage of the hotels is decreasing is not well specified.  Generally speaking, there are various causes damage reputation of a resort are; for instance, severe weather condition or economic depression.  Moreover, the country could promote its resort area toward the world so more people will be interested in visiting there if the promotion is successful.  Just elderly populated society is not enough to be a cause of less hotel occupation rate. 

In conclusion, the argument in current form is not convincing.  In order to better evaluate the author's claim, more information is needed.  Firstly, readers need to know the proportion of other generations in the country.  Also, forecast of the country must be discussed to assess investment in hotels.  Finally, other possible causes of less hotel occupation at resort area are not well considered.  Before any conclusion is made, the author must evaluate all aspects of the argument.

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