Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60.

Argument;

Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60.  Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high.  The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age.  Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 yeas.  Given that the number older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period.  We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. 

Answer;

The statement that investments on Cola Loca will be flown into Early Bird Coffee because of elderly populated society coming up in the next 20 years omits several important assumptions that must be addressed.  Those critical flaws make the author's conclusion invalid. 

Primarily, the argument is based on false statistical analysis.  The author notes that as people get older, coffee consumption increases.  On the other hand, elder consumers less consume cola.  However, there is nothing defining what proportion of each of who drinks coffee and cola.  For example, it is possible that just 5% of people prefer coffee to cola at the age 20 and 10% of them drink coffee more frequently than cola at the age 60.  Without proportion of each preference, at what age or when cola excesses coffee cannot be specified.  As a result, investors would hesitate make investment on coffee. 

Another assumption ignored by the statement is that population can be varied by many reasons.  Every generation gets older with varied number of population of the same ages.  For example, someone might have one hundred people with the same age at the age 25 but, when 60, the population of same generation could be declined because some of them could have had a fatal illness, which elders are more likely to get, or others could have just moved out to another city.  The older people get, the more they would disappear.  Thus, the idea that consumption of cola will gets over that of coffee in near future as population get older is not convincing.  Even if elder population increase, cola still could keep the most consumption. 

Finally, the author does not take economic situation into account.   These days, coffee beans get more expensive than before.  Many coffee shops put their additional charges on their customers in order to cover higher costs.  However, getting price higher without developing anything can trigger decline of customers.  The fewer customers, the less revenue and profit Early Bird Coffee has.  Investment plunges when a company has smaller profit. 

In conclusion, the argument in current form is not convincing.  In order to better evaluate the author's claim, more information would be needed.  To begin with, more statistical data needs to be provided.  Also, the population of targeted market is crucial to assess break-even point, the significant figure for investors.  Finally, the author must consider that economy and price of commodities fluctuates because any major fluctuation on either of both affect consumption.  Before any conclusion is made, every possibility must be studied.